Nasdaq Rebounds and KOSPI Recovers: Semiconductor Stocks Drive the Market Again
The recent movements of both the Nasdaq and KOSPI have been heavily shaken by the trends of semiconductor and AI-related stocks.
Just a few days ago, the market faced a sharp correction due to concerns over AI investment overheating and profit-taking in semiconductor stocks. However, on July 9, semiconductor stocks staged a strong rebound in the US stock market, leading the Nasdaq to close higher.
The Korean stock market also succeeded in rebounding on July 9 after a sharp plunge the previous day. However, intraday volatility remained high, and the market's heavy reliance on large-cap semiconductor stocks continues to pose a burden.
📈 Nasdaq Closes 1.30% Higher
On July 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 26,206.89, up 1.30% from the previous trading day. On the same day, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.81% to close at 7,543.66, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.27% to finish at 52,487.41.
Semiconductor stocks were at the center of this rebound. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 3.06%, and Micron showed strong performance following the announcement of its massive US investment plan.
❓ Why Semiconductor Stocks Rose Again
Micron announced plans to invest more than $250 billion in US semiconductor manufacturing and supply chains through 2035.
The market interpreted this as a signal that demand for AI data centers and memory semiconductors remains robust. While there were growing concerns just days ago that "AI investment might be moving too fast," this announcement re-ignited expectations for semiconductor demand.
In other words, the recent trend in the Nasdaq suggests that the AI hype has not faded; rather, the market is in a phase where expectations and concerns take turns influencing prices.
📉 Background behind the Nasdaq's Decline a Few Days Ago
On July 7, the sentiment was completely opposite. At that time, the Nasdaq fell 1.16%, and semiconductor stocks across the board weakened. Reuters pointed to doubts over the sustainability of the AI rally and profit-taking pressure as the reasons behind the decline in semiconductor stocks like Micron.
Even if good earnings or investment plans are released, the market may perceive them as a burden if high expectations are already priced in. This week, the US stock market has been fluctuating precisely at this inflection point.
🇰🇷 KOSPI Rebounds 0.62% After Previous Day's Plunge
The Korean stock market also reacted sensitively to the movement of semiconductor stocks. On July 9, the KOSPI closed at 7,291.91, up 45.12 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day. The KOSDAQ closed at 794.00, up 1.15%.
However, the intraday trend was far from stable. Driven by bargain hunting early in the session, the KOSPI rose as high as 7,543.86 but later tumbled to 7,063.76, exhibiting massive volatility.
⚠️ Why the KOSPI Fluctuates More Severely
The Korean stock market is heavily influenced by large-cap semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Reuters reported that on July 8, the KOSPI plummeted by over 5%, marking a drop of more than 20% from its June peak. Semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were at the center of that decline. Financial authorities in South Korea also stated that they are closely monitoring the concentration risk in the semiconductor sector and the volatility risks associated with single-stock leveraged ETFs.
While the US Nasdaq also has a high concentration of tech stocks, the Korean KOSPI has a structure where the movements of specific large-cap semiconductor stocks have a more direct and profound impact on the entire index.
🤝 Common Factor: AI and Semiconductor Expectations
Currently, the biggest variable moving both the Nasdaq and KOSPI is AI and semiconductors.
In the US: Micron, Broadcom, Nvidia, and semiconductor equipment stocks are driving the market sentiment.
In South Korea: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are heavily dictating the direction of the KOSPI.
Ultimately, both markets are fluctuating wildly based on AI data center investments, memory semiconductor demand, corporate earnings forecasts, and semiconductor supply chain investment plans.
⚖️ Differences: US Rebounds vs. Korea's Continued Volatility
The US stock market showed a relatively clear rebound on July 9, fueled by the strength of semiconductor stocks.
On the other hand, although the Korean market succeeded in rebounding, it suffered from intense intraday volatility. While bargain hunting flowed in after the previous day's crash, option expiration pressure and Middle East geopolitical risks acted together, making the index movements quite rough.
In short, while the US market used semiconductor investment expectations as a catalyst for a rebound, the Korean market experienced a day where bargain hunting and anxiety coexisted.
🔍 Key Variables to Watch Moving Forward
The core variables to monitor in the market ahead are as follows:
Nature of the US Rebound: Whether the rebound in US semiconductor stocks is a short-term technical bounce or if it will lead back to a sustained AI rally.
Stability of Korean Giants: Whether the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix can stabilize.
US Interest Rate Outlook: Reuters noted that US jobless claims indicated a stable labor market, and the market continues to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate outlook.
Middle East Risks and Oil Prices: Although the US stock market rose on July 9 despite geopolitical tensions involving Iran, this issue remains a lingering threat to investor sentiment.
📝 Summary
Currently, both the Nasdaq and KOSPI are markets driven by AI and semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq rose 1.30% on July 9 due to strength in semiconductors, and the KOSPI also rebounded 0.62% after a sharp plunge the previous day.
However, the recent trend is closer to a tug-of-war where AI expectations and overheating concerns repeatedly clash, rather than a straightforward bull market.
Particularly for the Korean stock market, given its heavy reliance on large-cap tech, investors need to simultaneously monitor the US semiconductor index, the performance of major stocks like Micron and Nvidia, and the supply-demand dynamics of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
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